The Second Cold War Comes Into Focus

Former president Obama’s advisors used to tout his approach as “no drama Obama.” But there was plenty of drama during Obama’s presidency ranging from his sending a few billion in cash to Iran to fund the terrorist regime to surrendering the ideological war to Islam in his 2009 Cairo speech. There was much, much more.

President Trump, on the other hand, is proudly dramatic. He sometimes  picks his fights but mostly they are thrust upon him.

Uncharacteristically, there was very little drama in the president’s summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week. Or maybe it was well-concealed behind the pomp and circumstance that played out in Beijing.

Messrs. Trump and Xi discussed a host of subjects ranging from trade between the U.S. and China to the Iran war and the security of Taiwan.

On trade, though Trump took a number of company heads with him — including Kelly Ortberg of Boeing Commercial and Jensen Huang of Nvidia — there were no breakthroughs. China is continuing its barring shipments of rare-earth metals to the U.S., which are crucial to production of everything from cell phones to fighter aircraft.

No big contracts were announced nor any Chinese investments in the U.S. China continues to play its cards very closely and will not give the U.S. any breaks. There is a second Cold War between us and China.

On the Iran war, Trump and Xi agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should be open to shipping but not on any Chinese effort to help us do so. Mr. Trump said that Xi had agreed to not arm Iran any longer but that can hardly be believed.

There are freight trains going between Beijing and Tehran. They have increased to once every three or four days where once they were weekly trips. There is no account from the Chinese — far less any neutral observer — on what the trains are carrying. They could be resupplying the ayatollahs’ stocks of missiles and drones quite easily. China has as much credibility on these issues as does Russia, which is to say none at all.

China is highly dependent on Iranian oil supplies. It may be supplying Iran with missiles and drones as well as other weaponry. And it may be counseling Iran to not reopen the Strait of Hormuz because it thinks it can get oil from India which may be transferred Iranian oil. But our blockade of Iran should stop that flow.

Taiwan has been a U.S. ally since China split in two, the mainland being vastly more powerful than our Taiwanese friends. Our “Two Chinas” policy goes back to the Nixon administration which “opened” China to the West and massive trade.

Prior to the president’s departure for Beijing, the president of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, thanked America for its “unwavering commitment” to Taiwan’s security. Taiwan is the source of the most advanced computer chips obtainable.

But at the summit, President Xi warned President Trump that Taiwan could bring about “clashes and even conflicts” between the two superpowers. After the meeting, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said, “President Xi stressed to President Trump that the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations. If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy.”

Mr. Trump, at the meeting, was non-committal about defending Taiwan. This apparently breaks one of the “Six Assurances” former president Reagan gave to Taiwan in 1982, one of which was to not consult China on arms sales to Taiwan.

On his return from Beijing Mr. Trump began backing off from the latest proposed arms sale to Taiwan which is valued at about $14 billion. It would contain defensive missiles, artillery and more. He has said that he needs to talk more to Taiwan’s leader about it before making up his mind.

If Mr. Trump cancels the arms sale it will be a huge win for Mr. Xi. Clearly, Mr. Trump should not cancel the deal if we value Taiwan’s security and independence, which we must and not just because we get the most advanced computer chips from the island nation.

Taiwan is a free state towards which China’s aggression is the most destabilizing factor in the Pacific. China has practiced blockading Taiwan and, more, attacking it from the air. Chinese aircraft violate Taiwanese airspace routinely.

All this boils down to not a failed summit but a chance to size up Chinese intentions in the region and beyond.

Chinese aggression is global of which Mr. Trump is clearly aware. What he does with the arms sale to Taiwan will say a lot about his presidency and the future of Taiwan.

READ MORE from Jed Babbin:

The Cease-Fire Fiction

Trump’s NATO Dilemma

A World Still at War

By kevin