Indiana On Top, UCLA’s Playoff Berth Headline Klatt’s Updated CFP Projections

Three undefeated teams remain, and a new group of two- and three-loss teams have entered the College Football Playoff conversation after Week 8.

Indiana made a strong case for the No. 1 seed with its gritty road win over Michigan. But who takes the No. 2 slot, between one-loss teams like Georgia and Ohio State? Which Group of Six squad earns the No. 12 seed? FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt has the answers, as he updated his 12-team CFP bracket on the latest episode of “The Joel Klatt Show”.

Here are Klatt’s updated College Football Playoff projections.

Klatt’s thoughts: “So who’s the No. 1 seed in all of this? Well, Miami will have lost. Georgia would have two losses. So I’m looking at the Big Ten champion, Indiana Hoosiers. Their only loss would be to Ohio State. They would have avenged that loss in the conference championship game. And in this scenario – if Ohio State were to win out, with a Miami loss to Notre Dame – [Indiana] would be the No. 1 team in the country in the Big Ten championship game. Which means Indiana would, for the second straight year, be the No. 1 overall seed in the College Football Playoff.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “So who gets the second seed? Last year, Ohio State was No. 1. They got beat and just went to No. 2. I don’t think that’s the case this year, because I think that [the committee] would honor the strength of schedule. Obviously, Ohio State has a ridiculous strength of schedule as well. This is just a projection, and I think they would honor the SEC. I think the committee favors the SEC. You guys know this about me. I think that the entire narrative of the sport favors the SEC.

“So, in this setting, I would think that Georgia would get the No. 2 overall seed. And I’m not arguing against that. I’m just saying like that’s kind of how I see it panning out. This is what we see. You know, the narrative would fit. They would have avenged their late-season loss to Ole Miss. They beat Ole Miss [in the SEC championship game]. They win the SEC, and boom, Georgia would be No. 2.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “So now you get to the No. 3 seed, and I think my No. 2 and No. 3 seeds would be basically interchangeable. I think it gets a little bit more tricky here at three. I think you’ve got to consider Notre Dame, although their schedule doesn’t look great. You got to consider Miami, although they just lost to Notre Dame. So, where are we landing? Well, again, Ohio State would be No. 1 in the country playing the Big Ten championship game in our scenario. And if they lose to Indiana, in particular, if it’s a great game like we’ve seen them play great games, I think they would go to number three right there. And by the way, you could probably interchange my Georgia at two and Ohio State at three, but those two teams are two and three. I’ve got Ohio State as my No. 3 overall seed. They would be 11-2 in this setting. Okay, so Ohio State is in there at number three.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Who gets No. 4? This is the last bye. It’s important. This No. 4 seed is vital. Even though we’ve only seen one team in the history of this 12-team playoff actually win a quarterfinal game after the long break. I’m going to give it to Notre Dame. They would be 11-1 on the back of their late-season win over Miami, who, by the way, will be the No. 1 team in the country when they play in South Bend, so that would be a win over the No. 1 team in the country. I think Notre Dame gets the No. 4 seed right there. Their résumé is not going to be the strongest. I think they’re going to pass the eye test. People love CJ Carr. I love CJ Carr, and Notre Dame is going to get in there. Remember, in this case, they are 11-1. They beat Miami, who was No. 1 in November, and they’re the No. 4 seed.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Now we go to the No. 5 seed. The first team with a home game non-bye is then going to be Miami. That’s why that game becomes so important, obviously. So Miami, I think their bye is on the line at Notre Dame, and I think Notre Dame’s possible playoff life is on the line in that game at Notre Dame. In this scenario, I’ve got Notre Dame winning that game; they get the buy. Miami Falls just outside; they’re the fifth seed in the country right there, and they’re back in the playoffs. They’re 12-1, ACC champ at No. 6.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Now I’ve got to go Big 12 champions, and so Utah, who I had winning the Big 12, they get slotted in here. They’re 12-1 at this point. They have avenged their regular season loss to BYU, and they beat BYU in the championship game. And so they’re 12-1 at this point, Big 12 champs, and they’re the No. 6 seed.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “So who gets No. 7? Well, Texas could be higher than this because, remember, they’ve got a win over Ohio State. They’ve got a win over Ole Miss. They would have a win over LSU. Texas is going to be my No. 7 seed. They would be rewarded with the home game. You could make a strong argument that they would be higher than this if they were to win out. I could get on board with that, but again, if you just kind of play the scenario out. You can see where Miami would be way up there at No. 1. They wouldn’t get hurt all that much. So then, Notre Dame, who beat them, would have to be up there. Ohio State would have been No. 1 in the conference championship game. They would only lose to Indiana and then Texas on the road all the way back. You can see where it gets a little bit dicey. But Texas, as a 10-2 in my estimation, again they have a high ceiling and maybe a low floor. Are they consistent? We don’t know. If they play well, run the football, play defense, and they win out, they’re the No. 7 seed in the playoff.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Who gets the No. 8 seed in the last home game? It would be Ole Miss. Remember, Ole Miss I had in the SEC championship game. But the only reason they fall all the way to number eight is because they lost to Texas. Miami would have been number one. You see where we’re going here, right? They get the home game in the eighth seed, but they can’t be ahead of Texas because Texas beat them. You could make the argument like, ‘well, you’re penalizing them for playing the SEC championship game.’ It’s one of the reasons why a lot of the coaches want the championship games to go away. But in my case, it’s a 10-3 Ole Miss team that wins big.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Who’s making the playoff? Who’s No. 9 and heading to Oxford? UCLA has only lost one game. Not a great résumé, but 11-1 UCLA is No. 9 in the country, and UCLA is going to the College Football Playoff. If that’s the case, remember, they avoided Ohio State, they avoided Indiana this year, and they had Oregon. So everyone thought, ‘Yeah, well, they got the Oregon win in Eugene, but that looks worse every single week with the way that Oregon has played,’ that’s losing value every single week. So at 11-1, I think they fall below all of those teams, even a three-loss Ole Miss team, because Ole Miss would have been in the SEC championship game. See where I’m going with that, but UCLA is in.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “Now we’re really getting to the nitty-gritty. This is where, two weeks ago, that matchup BYU had with Notre Dame is going to pay off, because now BYU – who has the loss to UCF in my scenario – has a win over Utah who’s already in, has a win over Notre Dame but is not a conference champ. I think the Big 12 gets a second team in here. This is where I think BYU falls. They’re 11 -2 as a runner-up in that conference. That game against Notre Dame is going to be massive, and they head down to Austin to face the Texas Longhorns. So BYU is in.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “This is it. The No. 11 seed. Where are we at with the No. 11 seed? It’s crazy. You start playing all this out, and you’ve got teams like SMU sitting there with probably three losses. You’ve got Wake Forest with maybe two losses, you never know. Maybe, maybe Wisconsin is sitting there with two losses. I mean, it could get crazy. Iowa could be sitting there with two losses. But you also have a bunch of 9-3 teams in the SEC … I actually see the path, and this is the path. The path is that you’ve got four candidates out of the SEC, all 9-3, and those candidates are LSU, Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee. And I think one of those gets the last spot. 

“So here’s how it’s going to play out. Alabama will have a win over Kentucky, but losses to LSU and Tennessee. Remember I’ve got LSU beating Alabama, and because of that big win they’re too high. They get beat by Texas. See, I played this whole thing out. LSU will have beaten Alabama and Tennessee in November. Hang on to that. I’ve got Kentucky with two losses in November, so I’ve got one team arrow pointed straight up, one team arrow pointed down. As we know, the timing of losses makes an impact. I think LSU’s arrow is pointing up. They will have the win over Bama. They will have the win over Tennessee. Both of those in November, and I think the Texas loss. There’s a pass on that, because all of a sudden Texas has turned into something that we’ve never seen them be, and I get that. Trust me, I struggle with that. 

“LSU gets the 11-seed. LSU 9-3. Lane Kiffin goes to the playoff.”

Klatt’s thoughts: “That’s a great fan base, Oregon State. They would be locked and ready to go for that one in a Pac-12 championship game on a Friday night. Oregon State beats Boise State twice, Beeves to the playoffs. Let’s go! I want Atkinson. I want Jesse Legree in there. I think that would be amazing. I think New Mexico gets boxed out, and I think Oregon State takes that passing game down to Salt Beach and they face Miami in the first round.”