Israel heads into deeply divided election as Oct. 7 reckoning looms: What to know

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL — Campaign banners bearing the faces of Israel’s political leaders cover buildings and roadsides, while in homes, coffee shops and family gatherings, the same question dominates conversations: Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remain in power?

With Israelis heading to the polls Tuesday, the country is bracing for a closely contested election that could end in another political deadlock. But this vote is unlike any other in Israel’s recent history.

For many Israelis, the election has become a referendum on accountability for the failures that allowed Hamas terrorists to carry out the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre — the deadliest attack in Israel’s history.

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Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for decades, has resisted calls to accept personal responsibility for the security failures and establish an independent state commission of inquiry. His government instead sought a politically appointed investigation, a proposal fiercely opposed by many bereaved families.

Yet Israel’s divisions began long before Oct. 7.

In the months preceding the attacks, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest Netanyahu’s proposed judicial overhaul, which critics argued would undermine the country’s democracy. The confrontation spilled into the military, where reservists threatened to suspend volunteer service, raising alarms about Israel’s preparedness. Some critics have argued that the turmoil projected weakness to the country’s enemies, although the extent to which it influenced Hamas’s decision to attack remains disputed.

Three years after the massacre, those divisions have only deepened, transforming Tuesday’s vote into something intensely personal. Political allegiances have strained friendships and divided families, with much of the national debate reduced to a single question: Are you for Netanyahu, widely known as “Bibi,” or against him?

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For some families who lost loved ones on Oct. 7, the answer is painfully clear.

Shir Shai, whose brother Yaron Shai, an Israeli soldier, was killed battling Hamas terrorists that day, delivered a stark message to those considering another vote for Netanyahu.

“If you nevertheless decide to vote again for the man who brought disaster upon us and his accomplices, I have one personal request: Don’t come here anymore,” Shai said over her brother’s grave in his memorial ceremony on October 7

“You still have 20 days to be part of the process of putting things right. But if you choose to perpetuate the failure rather than honor the fallen, it would be better if you stayed home next year,” she added.

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Yet other bereaved families have reached the opposite conclusion, crediting Netanyahu with standing firm through years of war on multiple fronts and arguing that Israel’s military and intelligence establishment bears the principal responsibility for failing to anticipate the Hamas assault.

The deeply polarized atmosphere has been intensified by an increasingly bitter campaign. Just two days before the election, Netanyahu shared an AI-generated image depicting a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, warning of the existential threat posed by Iran if the country elects a leader unable to confront Tehran.

Concerns now extend beyond the election results themselves. Israeli police are preparing for possible unrest after the polls close, while experts have warned about the potential for disputes over the legitimacy of the results — including an extreme scenario resembling the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

With the opposition united in its ambition to replace Netanyahu but divided over how to govern afterward, neither political bloc is assured of a parliamentary majority and the final outcome could take weeks to determine.

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Israelis will vote Tuesday, Oct. 27, with most polling stations opening at 7 a.m. and closing at 10 p.m. local time.

Election Day is a national holiday in Israel, giving voters the opportunity to cast their ballots. Some smaller communities and special polling locations operate on different schedules.

Eligible voters must be Israeli citizens at least 18 years old and generally vote at their assigned polling station. Most Israelis living abroad cannot vote remotely, although exceptions apply to certain official representatives overseas.

Israel has a parliamentary system in which voters select a political party rather than an individual candidate for prime minister.

The country’s parliament, known as the Knesset, has 120 seats, distributed through a system of nationwide proportional representation.

Each party submits a ranked list of candidates, and the number of seats it receives depends on its share of the national vote.

To enter parliament, a party must win at least 3.25% of the valid votes. Parties falling below that threshold receive no seats, potentially changing the balance between rival political blocs.

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Israel’s major television networks are expected to release exit polls immediately after voting ends at 10 p.m. Tuesday (4 p.m. EST).

Those projections will provide the first indication of how many seats each party may win and whether Netanyahu or his rivals appear better positioned to assemble a coalition.

But exit polls are not official results, and even small differences in the final vote could determine whether parties cross the electoral threshold.

Actual vote counts will emerge as ballots are counted, with preliminary results developing after polls close and over the following days.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee has scheduled the publication of official results for Wednesday, Nov. 4 , eight days after the election.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, 77, leads the conservative right-wing Likud party and is seeking to extend his record tenure as Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.

His main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, 66, a former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces who leads the centrist Yashar party and has positioned himself as an alternative to Netanyahu’s leadership.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, 54, is also seeking a political comeback, running on a joint ticket with former Prime Minister Yair Lapid.

Other significant political figures include former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, Democrats leader Yair Golan, and Netanyahu’s right-wing populist allies Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.

Arab political parties, including Ra’am and the Joint List, could also play a crucial role in determining the final parliamentary balance.

The key number in Israeli politics is 61 — a majority of the 120-seat Knesset.

No single Israeli party has ever won enough seats to control parliament alone, meaning parties generally need to form coalitions with other political factions.

This means the party that wins the most seats does not automatically get to lead the government.

Instead, the decisive question is which political leader can secure enough parliamentary support to govern.

Once the official results are published, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the newly elected parliamentary factions.

Within seven days, the president must assign a member of the Knesset the task of forming a government.

The president generally selects the politician considered most likely to assemble a governing coalition, who is not necessarily the leader of the largest party.

That candidate initially has 28 days to reach agreements with other parties, with the possibility of an extension of up to 14 additional days.

The proposed government must then win a confidence vote in the Knesset before taking office.

If the first candidate fails, the president can ask another lawmaker to attempt to form a government, giving that person 28 days without an extension.

If that effort also fails, a majority of 61 lawmakers can request that another candidate be given 14 days to try.

If no government emerges, Israel could face another national election.

Coalition negotiations can take weeks or months. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, the process of forming an Israeli government has historically taken between 20 and 100 days.

Until a new government is sworn in, the outgoing government remains in office.

Tuesday’s vote is the first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attacks, which triggered the war in Gaza and raised profound questions about Israel’s security leadership.

Beyond Netanyahu’s political future, the next government will face decisions over Israel’s national security, the future of Gaza, military conscription, relations with the United States and the country’s regional diplomatic relationships.

With pre-election polling showing no clear path to a parliamentary majority for either major political bloc, the contest could remain unresolved long after Tuesday’s votes are counted.